Did Mitsu blunder by not putting 16Kwh battery in US version

[anko]

It would also take longer to charge.

How would that ever be a downside?

Depends on the "cheap rate" window on your electricity tariff - so might be more expensive.

True. But if that becomes an issue and you don't need the range, you don't charge it to full? Or don't drive it to empty ...

 

[greendwarf]

True. But if that becomes an issue and you don't need the range, you don't charge it to full? Or don't drive it to empty ...

Not for us poor buggers down here in steerage with our non-wifi Gx3hs :lol:

 

[Leaf1]

If it helps with your cell cost discussion, I was quoted a price of $9,000 for a 2018 replacement pack last week ( in the U.S.).

 

[greendwarf]

If it helps with your cell cost discussion, I was quoted a price of $9,000 for a 2018 replacement pack last week ( in the U.S.).

£6500 might be worth it to extend the life of our cars. Was that just the battery or did it include fitting?

 

[jaapv]

It would be a lot cheaper to have the degraded cells replaced. This service is already offered for Prius, it won't be long before it is expanded to other brands.

 

[maby]

If it helps with your cell cost discussion, I was quoted a price of $9,000 for a 2018 replacement pack last week ( in the U.S.).

£6500 might be worth it to extend the life of our cars. Was that just the battery or did it include fitting?

I doubt it - they depreciate very quickly! We've just bought a second hand PHEV - just over three years old and 41,000 on the clock - £12,500. It does look remarkably like the company car that we had - even down to the scratches and small dents!

 

[ThudnBlundr]

Renault recently doubled the capacity of the battery for their Zoe (from 22kWh to 41kWh) without changing its dimensions. People have been swapping in the larger battery for a cost of about €4k (ISTR) for a leased battery and they're talking of €10k for a swap of an owned battery, which includes transport and storage of the old battery. That's a lot of money when our 2½-year-old Zoe cost £5k

 

[greendwarf]

If it helps with your cell cost discussion, I was quoted a price of $9,000 for a 2018 replacement pack last week ( in the U.S.).

£6500 might be worth it to extend the life of our cars. Was that just the battery or did it include fitting?

I doubt it - they depreciate very quickly! We've just bought a second hand PHEV - just over three years old and 41,000 on the clock - £12,500. It does look remarkably like the company car that we had - even down to the scratches and small dents!

Exactly the point - if my car is only worth £10k now after 3.5 years, it will be worth nothing in another 5. So what do I do then if the battery is failing but the car is otherwise still OK. Should I pay out for the new battery giving extended life on the car (even if not me :lol: ) or spend another £40k (of the children's inheritance) for an new PHEV which will outlive me or downgrade into the second-hand market, repeating every couple of years, till I die?

 

[maby]

...

Exactly the point - if my car is only worth £10k now after 3.5 years, it will be worth nothing in another 5. So what do I do then if the battery is failing but the car is otherwise still OK. Should I pay out for the new battery giving extended life on the car (even if not me :lol: ) or spend another £40k (of the children's inheritance) for an new PHEV which will outlive me or downgrade into the second-hand market, repeating every couple of years, till I die?

Speaking personally, if I'm still capable of driving when my PHEV is incapable of being driven, I think I'll buy a SEAT Ateca - nice car and pretty cheap.

 

[greendwarf]

...

Exactly the point - if my car is only worth £10k now after 3.5 years, it will be worth nothing in another 5. So what do I do then if the battery is failing but the car is otherwise still OK. Should I pay out for the new battery giving extended life on the car (even if not me :lol: ) or spend another £40k (of the children's inheritance) for an new PHEV which will outlive me or downgrade into the second-hand market, repeating every couple of years, till I die?

Speaking personally, if I'm still capable of driving when my PHEV is incapable of being driven, I think I'll buy a SEAT Ateca - nice car and pretty cheap.

(Un)fortunately living in London I will have to deal with the increasing restrictions (and cost) of using ICE cars - unless the pollution kills me off in the meantime! :lol: :mrgreen:

 

[StevieB]

I personally think we'll eventually see specialist centres dedicated to EV/PHEV battery renewal and maintenance to deal with out of warranty work.

It'll become the 'norm' to book in a car in the morning, and return later in the day with a brand new battery pack fitted, for a reasonable price.

It's a matter of when, not if.

The first folk to do it, and roll it out, will do well out of it. This would also mean the depreciation rate of PHEVS will lessen, as folk will be less concerned.

You'd need probably 5 main centres in the UK to do it, but the staff training is the main thing. I reckon we'll see it within the next 5 years - perhaps 2 centres only, rising to 5. The initial start-up cost would be high though for training and equipment.

 

[ChrisMiller]

@StevieB - let's run the numbers. Suppose half the UK fleet (currently 37.5 million vehicles) had a battery pack. Suppose the packs need to be replaced every 10 years - that's 5,000 replacements a day. So I think we'd need more than 5 centres.

And as for 'a reasonable price' - I suppose it depends what you consider reasonable. I imagine you could get the labour costs down to well under £1,000, but a full pack currently costs £5,000 - £20,000 (or more for a high end EV). Anyone looking at a cost like that is going to want to think seriously about a replacement vehicle. The cost might come down by 10% or even 20% in the longer term, but there's no way it's going to reduce to a small fraction of the current level - the raw materials cost more than that.

 

[ThudnBlundr]

Costs per kwh have been dropping by 15-20% a year for several years as new production comes online. There's nothing to suppose that won't continue for a while yet as more factories and sources are opened up. We're still in the early years...

 

[ChrisMiller]

Costs per kwh have been dropping by 15-20% a year for several years

Are you sure about that? It would imply that 10 years ago, prices were 10x higher, which I don't believe to be the case.

 

[ThudnBlundr]

A very quick search turned up links from Wikipedia and others. Look here and here

 

[StevieB]

@StevieB - let's run the numbers. Suppose half the UK fleet (currently 37.5 million vehicles) had a battery pack. Suppose the packs need to be replaced every 10 years - that's 5,000 replacements a day. So I think we'd need more than 5 centres.

And as for 'a reasonable price' - I suppose it depends what you consider reasonable. I imagine you could get the labour costs down to well under £1,000, but a full pack currently costs £5,000 - £20,000 (or more for a high end EV). Anyone looking at a cost like that is going to want to think seriously about a replacement vehicle. The cost might come down by 10% or even 20% in the longer term, but there's no way it's going to reduce to a small fraction of the current level - the raw materials cost more than that.

Firstly, you're jumping the gun - you're saying half the fleet already. I'm saying on current levels and perhaps levels over the next 5 years. Half the UK fleet in 5 years still won't be full Hybrid or EV. So 2 to 5 centres will be fine, as the cost to train and kit them out will be high - 5 regional centres of maybe capacity of 10 bays will be enough to get started and not place a massive risk on the start-up. Battery pack will last longer than 10 years, and will go longer, but at a reduced rate. As far as i am aware, the batteries don't just give up, just lose their effectiveness - so even a waiting time of 3 months would be ok.

Economies of scale apply to the actual training and material price don't they - so as time goes on, costs will come down, as they have done already for Li-Ion tech. Just look at cordless power tools - battery packs have come down quite a lot over the years, as well as there size reducing, but amp/hr increasing.

Finally, you have to account on legislative behaviour of the government, which will probably drive manufacturers into offering competitive battery replacements - you can't crush the vehicles easily for scrap, as they'd have to be professionally removed and the pack recycled in accordance with WEEE guidelines. So they'll be a need for it anyway.

Once the mainstream centres spring up, eventually they'll sprout other smaller business etc who will do it too.

Also, look at depreciation rates of the Outlander - if you buy privately from new, you need to be keeping it several years to make it worth while. This is because there is a perception of risk in regards to the batteries. Make the batteries easy to swap out and replace for a reasonable cost, and then consumer confidence increases and values hold better.

My final point is, have you ever looked into the cost of a replacement engine for a car? Even a Ford Focus diesel engine will cost you several grand at dealer for a new replacement. So not much different from current batteries prices..... Look at BMW, MB and Audi, and you can double that price for an engine......

 

[ChrisMiller]

@StevieB: Some politico nutjobs think we're going to be 100% electric by 2040, so we'll need to get to 50% reasonably soon. Even if we're only at 5% (I chose my stats for ease of calculation rater than accuracy), that's still 500 replacements a day, 365 days a year.

And, yes, replacement engines are expensive, but I don't expect to replace an entire engine every 10 years, and if I do need a replacement on a 10-year-old car, I'd get rid of it. Which was rather my point.

 

[ThudnBlundr]

I think 50% will happen far sooner than 2040 in the UK. It's already over 50% in Norway, where it was over 90% diesel only a few years ago, so the change is achievable in a few years with political will (and incentives :roll

 

[StevieB]

@StevieB: Some politico nutjobs think we're going to be 100% electric by 2040, so we'll need to get to 50% reasonably soon. Even if we're only at 5% (I chose my stats for ease of calculation rater than accuracy), that's still 500 replacements a day, 365 days a year.

And, yes, replacement engines are expensive, but I don't expect to replace an entire engine every 10 years, and if I do need a replacement on a 10-year-old car, I'd get rid of it. Which was rather my point.

It wouldn’t be every 10 years - I’d say between 12-16 years. But I understand your point.

My point is it wouldn’t be any different to a combustion engined vehicle. I get rid of cars and swap to keep value in them but also before the big problems start - 100k Miles + are when they do.

You say you’d get shut if the car before the batteries were needed or if they were. I’d do the same. But, the opportunity arises for another bloke to buy said vehicle for peanuts, put in new batteries, service it and either use it or flog it. I’m confident that battery pack prices will allow this eventually. And when it does, the Outlander will retain higher % of value, so it will make it worth it. Flogging a vehicle with battery defects will make the car worthless almost.

Only same as a new or re-con engine into a car. If rest of car is decent, someone will take it on to make a profit or give them access to a car they couldn’t normally afford.

As an example, a friend of mine bought an Audi R8 V8. It had a major engine fault and therefore was for sale very cheap. Dealer had quoted something like £9k for repairs or possibly full new engine. My friend is an automotive engineer - so he researched the parts and issue before buying it. Turned out the parts were around £5k but it was a very long job to strip down, so labour rates were crazy. He bought it, did the repair and a few other bits whilst engine was stripped. Took him nearly 3 months due to his work commitments etc, but he did it. The car was already immaculate with full Audi history, so it was worth doing. He bought it for The price of a new Mondeo. Spent about £6k on it plus his time, and now it’s worth a lot more - but he’s kept it and drives around in it.

One man’s loss, was another man’s gain.

 

[LGAero]

I am the first to say that I would love a far greater battery capacity in my 2018 Outlander. Amazing to think it has been in production for 5 years without an I crese of capacity. However the numbers for battery cost per kWH are far greater than some here think they are. Remember that cost includes a lot of ancillary equipment including enclosure, BMS, cooling and heating, circuit protection etc.

Real world prices especially in smaller capacities are well over $ 350 per kWh all up. Marginal increases still are hard to get below $300. Frankly look at what companies like Tesla charge for higher capacities. If the battery was so cheap that it was under a $150 per kWh then a P100 battery would only be $15,000 out of $130,000 car. We clearly are nowhere near this type of math.

That said, the cost of battery increase to get to 18kwh would be justified in the US market by the tax credit alone. And would I have jumped at the opportunity to increase battery capacity to 22 kWh from 12 kWh for an extra $3,500.

Finally, if it is to be believed there is a released spec for 2019 models which call for a 13.8 kWH battery. Wow, what progress!

Knowing that the BMW gets 30.5 kWh in a enclosure not much larger than the Outlander makes me wonder at the wisdom of not making a significant increase in capacity. The effect for Mitsubishi sales would be well “electrifying “ :roll: